Most of this week is expected to be warm and spring-like, but by now you've probably seen all across social media that some very cold air could make it all the way to the Gulf Coast by this weekend. This cold airmass is already bringing parts of the Midwest the coldest temperatures so far this season, but now the big question is can it make it all the way to the Gulf Coast?
New Orleans has not officially recorded a freezing temperature at the airport since January 19, 2018, so it is pretty rare to see extremely cold air get this far south. However, that might change this weekend...might.
A cold front is forecast to arrive by late Thursday with the cooler air slowly moving in Friday and Saturday. This air will be colder, but not freezing. Then models show another push of even colder air by late Saturday into Sunday. However, for the past several days models have been disagreeing on just how cold we get for the past several days.
Models differ
The GFS (American) model shows brutally cold air moving in by late Saturday. It shows lows dipping into the 10s and 20s Sunday morning, while the European model keeps temperatures in the 20s and 30s. While both show colder air, this a big difference. When models do this we have to look at the average between many models. Most of our models do show colder air for the weekend, so that can be expected. Just how cold remains a big question though. That is expected somewhat when you're 5+ days away.
The most important thing to remember is slow moving cold fronts are extremely tricky to forecast and forecasts beyond three days are not terribly accurate, Expect changes in the forecast for this weekend and some changes could be dramatic. For now we just need to wait and watch what happens over the next couple days. Be patient and check back for updates!