The two-month quiet stretch in the tropics is slowly coming to an end but there still isn’t a named storm as we wrap up August.
It’s been so quiet, that this is the first August in 25 years since 1997 without a named storm. Before 1997, there were three other years where we had no named storms in this month. The years are 1961, 1941, and 1929. So, it is quite rare to go through August without a named storm.
What’s also strange is that the northern hemisphere is a La Nina pattern. Usually when this climatological pattern is set in place, atmospheric conditions are favorable for tropical development during the Atlantic hurricane season. The reason for this is that the water is cooler in the Pacific Ocean which causes the air above to sink. If there is sinking air present across the tropical Pacific, then there is likely air rising over the tropical Atlantic. Rising air would generally stir up tropical activity.
Now keep in mind that we still have a long way to go through the season which ends on November 30.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching which is statistically the second week of September meaning the tropics become very active.
The latest information from the NHC has three areas highlighted over the Atlantic Basin that have a medium to high chance of tropical formation.
None is a threat to the Gulf Coast.
There have been three named storms so far for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season and all three have been “shorties” which are tropical cyclones that last less than 48 hours.
The last-named storm we tracked was Tropical Storm Colin which formed July 2 and quickly dissipated 24 hours later. Since Colin, it has been 59 days without a named storm.
This year is now second for the longest stretch without a named system and has tied 2002.
In 2002, there was a 59-day streak from June 2 to July 31 without a named storm. After that stretch, there were seven tropical storms and four hurricanes.
The longest inactive streak on record is 61 days set back in 1999 from June 18 to August 18. After that quiet spell, the 1999 hurricane season had 11 named storms. Three were tropical storms, eight were hurricanes with five of them being category 4 major hurricanes.
If we do not get a named storm by this Saturday (Sept 3, 2022) we will break the record for the longest stretch without a named storm.
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