NEW ORLEANS — The 2024 hurricane season began Saturday, June 1.
Aggressive forecasts for the season as a whole have been issued from nearly all forecasting outlets including NOAA. NOAA predicts 17-25 named storms of which 8-13 will become hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. (Average season numbers are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.)
We are currently shifting from an El Nino weather pattern to a neutral pattern. Forecasts call for La Nina to begin between June and August. This would put us in the hurricane-favorable La Nina pattern during the peak of hurricane season in September. This pattern suppresses wind shear in the Atlantic basin and typically allows hurricanes to form and strengthen more easily.
The eventual La Nina pattern plus warmer-than-average ocean water in the central and eastern Atlantic are expected to enhance hurricane formation later in the season.
Hurricane season officially lasts for six months until November 30, but 95 percent of major hurricane activity typically happens from August to October.
Be sure to review your safety plans now before any big storms come our way.
HURRICANE CENTER: Live Radar, 5-Day Projected Path, Spaghetti Plots
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