NEW ORLEANS — Although Carnival Season is in full swing, warmer weather will be here just around the corner and we know what that means ... hurricane season will be here before we know it.
Looking ahead to the summer, I'll be paying close attention to the changing oceanic-atmospheric climate pattern known as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
We talk about it all the time; Is it an El Nino?; La Nina?; or is it in a neutral phase this year?
To answer these questions, we have to look at the sea surface temperatures, also known as SSTs, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Nino correlates to warmer than average SSTs, while La Nina is cooler than average. Both of these phases can play a huge role in our weather pattern across the United States and other parts of the world.
You may remember during the 2023 hurricane season that we were experiencing an El Nino, and that weather phenomenon hasn't gone away. As of February, El Nino was still in full effect.
Typically, El Nino results in less activity in the tropics across the Atlantic Basin due to higher wind shear. This makes it harder for storms to develop.
El Nino also impacts our winter weather in the US. Thanks to El Nino, we've seen a lot more rain and flooding in Southeast Louisiana this winter due to an extended Pacific jet stream.
So, what's going to happen with ENSO this year?
Right now, it looks like our current El Nino will transition to a neutral phase by April through June of 2024. Then, it appears a La Nina could develop anytime from June to August 2024. The Climate Prediction Center, or CPC, has issued a La Nina Watch to account for this possible change.
How could this impact the upcoming 2024 hurricane season?
Well, La Nina typically leads to less wind shear in the Atlantic Basin which could result in more tropical activity. Of course, there are other factors like sea surface temperature and ever-changing, upper-level atmospheric wind patterns that determine the life of a tropical system. And even though La Nina may make it more conducive for storms to develop doesn't necessarily mean they will make landfall.
Something else to keep in mind is that, according to the CPC, sometimes these ENSO forecasts through the spring season tend to not be as reliable. Though they do say there is a, "historical tendency for La Nina to follow strong El Nino events."
So, keep checking back as we get closer to hurricane season for the latest updates on this!
