NEW ORLEANS — With another approaching front from the west...but won't move through...will help to trigger some scattered showers and storms for Tuesday. Expecting around 40-50% mainly in the afternoon and early evening. Also, the with the front to our west, we have stronger SE winds. This has prompted a Coastal Flood Advisory for the LA and MS coasts, with a Coastal Flood Warning for Eastern Orleans, SE St. Tammany, and Hancock Co. Conditions will improve after high tide Tuesday morning.
The upper pattern is not supportive of the front moving through. So we remain warm and humid through the week.
There is a question on rain chances for Friday and Saturday due to our tropical system. There is also disagreement on a possible cold front moving through for Monday.
Tracking the Tropics:
Tropical Storm Rafael developed in the western Caribbean. It is expected to strengthen to a hurricane before reaching western Cuba and will likely be a hurricane as it moves into the southern to central Gulf. The question then becomes where does it go by Thursday into Friday. A mid-level high east of Florida will determine the eventual steering. The GFS says the high will be more east, allowing the storm to move more toward the north. If, per the Euro, the high is more west into the eastern Gulf, it would likely push the storm more west across the central Gulf toward Texas. Either way, the conditions in the Gulf become more hostile and possible rapid weakening is expected long term.
A few things to consider. The Caribbean remains an area conducive for tropical development into November, the Gulf doesn't. The Caribbean still has deep, warm water to fuel a storm. More shallow warm water across the Gulf, with temps too cool along the Gulf coasts. Also, we're looking for strong wind shear and dry air along the western and northern Gulf coast next week.
Detailed Forecast:
TONIGHT:
Mostly cloudy. Spotty rain. Mild and damp. Breezy. Low: S 75, N 73. Winds: SE 8-15.
ELECTION DAY:
Mostly cloudy. 40% scattered showers. Warm, humid. Breezy. High: 84. Winds: S 8-15.
WEDNESDAY:
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Warm, humid. Low: S 74, N 72. High: 85.
THURSDAY:
Partly cloudy. Warm, humid. Isolated shower. Becoming breezy. Low: S 74, N 72. High: 84.
FRIDAY:
Mostly cloudy. 40% scattered showers. Breezy. Low: S 72, N 69. High: 82.
SATURDAY:
Mostly cloudy. 40% scattered showers. Breezy. Low: S 71, N 68. High: 82.
SUNDAY:
Sun to partly cloudy. Bit less humid. Low: S 69, N 64. High: 80.
MONDAY:
Mostly sunny. Bit less humid. Low: S 66, N 59. High: 80.
