NEW ORLEANS — Taysom Hill at age 33 is suddenly more valuable to the New Orleans Saints than he's ever been.
When Taysom Hill runs the football the Saints average 5.4 yards. When someone not named Taysom Hill runs the ball, the Saints average 3.1 yards per carry. That’s a problem because it means any non-Taysom Hill running play has the worst average per rush in the NFL.
Now some of you might be screaming, “Just give Taysom the ball more!!” In theory that feels like a great idea, but the reality is more complicated.
Taysom Hill is on pace for about 140 or so combined runs and catches, which would be about 35-40 more than his 2022 total of 105 runs/catches combined.
Of course, we all love Taysom. He’s incredibly fun, and unique and we are unlikely to ever see a player quite like him again. His ability to score touchdowns throwing, running, and catching is fantastic and the 2023 Saints are very reliant on him to turn red zone trips into six points.
The Saints should rename the red zone to Taysom Time and get a NOLA business to sponsor it.
I’m not going to pretend to have any solutions to this problem, I just know asking Taysom to have 15 touches as he did against the Bears eight more weeks ain’t it. That’d be around 190 touches for the season or basically DOUBLE his 2022 workload.
The Saints have to get the non-Taysom Hill running game to not be terrible. Alvin Kamara is averaging a career-worst 3.6 yards a carry. Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller have both shown flashes but have battled injuries.
As much fun as Taysom Hill having 200 touches and a monster season where we could laugh at all the Taysom Hill haters and ask them, “Is he worth the money now nerd?” would be, I’d rather Pete Carmichael Jr. use the 2022 Taysom plan where Saints limit his touches and keep him healthy. The trouble is as long as every running play not Taysom struggles, the temptation for “MORE TAYSOM!” will only grow stronger, whether it’s a good long-term plan or not.
The Saints haven’t been this bad running the ball in a quarter-century. The 1998 Saints averaged 3.5 yards a carry and their leading rusher was Lamar Smith with 457 yards. They had six rushing touchdowns the entire season. SIX. The funniest part about being a Saints fan is no matter how bad something is, there is always a point somewhere in Saints history where it was worse if you just look long enough.
The Saints aren’t very likely to turn their running attack from sad three-yard handoffs to good, but they can’t stay worst in the NFL on non-Taysom runs and be a playoff team.
Taysom Hill can be part of the solution to the running game but he can’t be THE ENTIRE SOLUTION.
Saints Mood and Meditation Music: I Walk on Guilded Spirits – Dr. John
The Saints lead the NFL in interceptions, and if that ain’t some kind of New Orleans voodoo, I don’t know what is. Dr. John probably wasn’t talking about what the Saints secondary does to opposing quarterbacks when he sang, “Gris-gris on your doorstep, and soon you'll be in the gutter, children” but I like to pretend he was. Saints defensive backs got that good gris gris y’all. Enjoy it while we can.
The Games
Last Week: 2-3
Season: 21-19
New Orleans (-2.5) at Minnesota: I’ll be the contrarian here. Lots of Saints fans are terrified of Vikings quarterback Josh Dobbs. HE SCRAMBLES and everyone knows Dennis Allen's defense struggles with scrambling quarterbacks! Relax. It was a very fun and cool story last week of Dobbs not practicing or even really knowing the plays and still leading the Vikings to a win against the Falcons. That's not going to last. Dobbs has been on four teams in five years, and his teams have won 1 of the 10 games he's started.
Sunday is going to go for Dobbs like it has gone for pretty much every quarterback the Saints play; he will have a pretty good first half, and then do almost nothing in the second half. It's not the Vikings offense we should worry about, it's their defense.
New Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has the Vikings playing really good defense after a rough start. No team blitzes six players more than the Vikings. During their current four-game win streak the Vikings' defense has collected 11 of its 24 sacks. The Saints offensive line has been better the last three weeks but Minnesota is their biggest test since probably the Tampa Bay game.
The Saints-Vikings rivalry is really weird. The Vikings have done most of the winning in playoff games except 2009 and Vikings fans will never get over it. 1,000 Minnesota miracles won't change Brett Favre throwing away a Super Bowl trip. Let's watch it again!
The Saints are due for their every five-week-or-so great game. The 2023 Saints aren't capable of consistently good performances, so trying to predict when the next one comes is just a guess. I have a feeling though – America is going to be reminded Josh Dobbs is a journeyman backup and the Saints have the best defensive backfield in the sport.
Saints 31-14
Atlanta (-1) at Arizona: If the Saints can beat the Vikings, there is a possibility the return of Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray could see the Saints head into their bye week two games clear in the NFC South. It'd be amazing, but the Falcons aren't losing to one-win Arizona. Or are they?
Falcons 27-20
Houston (+7) at Cincinnati: The Texans have a star QB and a great young coach. They are for real and shouldn't be a touchdown underdog to the Bengals.
Bengals 34-27
Jacksonville (+3) vs San Francisco: Brock Purdy mania is over like day-light saving time. If the 49ers and Lions both lose and the Saints win, the NFC behind Philadelphia is officially in chaos. I love chaos.
Jaguars 23-20
Dallas (-16.5) vs New York Giants: The Giants are so indescribably bad. This line could be 25 and I'd still take the Cowboys.
Cowboys 35-3
Ralph Malbrough is a contributing writer and Saints fan living in Houston. Email him at saintshappyhour@gmail.com, find him on Facebook, or follow him on Twitter at @SaintsForecast or download the Saints Happy Hour Podcast.