NEW ORLEANS — The 2023 New Orleans Saints season preview has confounded me all summer. It's probably a combination of writer’s block and the fact last year's season preview might be my all-time favorite.
The fact I was completely wrong and the football analytic nerds were correct about the 2022 Saints doesn't make me love that column any less. It was fun to write, and I stand by my belief that teams tanking and losing on purpose now for a better, brighter future sometime eventually is dumb and doesn't work. As long as Mickey Loomis is in charge, the Saints are going to try to win.
Which is the proper course of action when asking fans to spend thousands of dollars to attend Saints games.
Over the years, I've become less interested in trying to get my Saints season prediction correct and more fascinated with trying to entertain y'all and figure out the overall theme and storyline of the Saints season.
Sometimes, I get it right, like in 2017 when I said after three straight 7-9 years that something had to end. Either the losing or the Sean Payton/Drew Brees Era was going to stop. I didn't know they had just completed the greatest draft in team history and had opened up five more seasons of winning, but my belief something had to change was dead on.
So, what of the 2023 Saints and my inability to come up with coherent and compelling thoughts on their upcoming season? I was more stuck in the mud than all those wanna-be hippies and survivalists at Burning Man in Nevada, and then Jimmy Buffett died. Buffett -- who is on the Mount Rushmore of celebrity Saints fans by the way -- the man came out to play the 2019 Jazz Fest as a blind referee with 2 cheerleaders guiding him on stage. Absolute Legend.
I've loved Jimmy Buffett ever since my brother took me to see him in Jackson, Mississippi, when I was in high school. The thing about my Buffett fandom is my first introduction to him was to his mid-career music, which my brother loves, and aren't the songs you probably know if you have only heard of Jimmy Buffett, like Cheeseburger in Paradise and Margaritaville. The Buffett songs I love the most are Carnival World, Another Road, Islands, One Particular Harbor, Changing Channels, When the Coast is Clear, and Survive. Songs about getting through it all, but smiling anyway.
So, when I saw Jimmy Buffett died Friday, I immediately pulled up all the Buffett music on my phone, which I hadn't listened to in a long time for some reason. It always fascinates me how music attaches itself to moments in your life if you love a particular artist. I took burned CDs of Buffett when I did the LSU Paris study abroad program in 2000 thanks to the best grandmother on earth, played Buffett on the three-day drive to a job in California, and let Jimmy comfort me on a cross-country plane ride home after being dumped.
Could Jimmy Buffett help me out one more time with a little inspiration for a Saints' column? Like most Jimmy Buffett songs, hope springs eternal and there's no problem a little alcohol and procrastination can't fix. And sure enough... it came to me.
The theme of the Saints 2023 season courtesy of a favorite little obscure Buffett song on his box set 'Boats, Beaches, Bars, and Ballads.'
Jimmy Buffett's song 'Love and Luck' sums up perfectly where the Saints, and more importantly for me, where Saints fans are in 2023.
After five years of bad luck, bad referees, and bad injuries, Jimmy sums up what we need, “Everybody needs a little good luck charm, a little gris-gris keeps you safe from harm.”
From the moment of the 'No Call,' there's always been a feeling of doom around here. Even as the Saints had great regular seasons in 2019 and 2020, the storm clouds seemed to be just around the corner waiting to ruin the fun and rakes were in position to be stepped on.
From Drew Brees injuries to inexplicable playoff losses to Minnesota and Tampa, the bad luck always found the Saints like a black cat looking for a meal. It didn't even stop when Drew exited stage right. The injuries got WORSE in 2022, with new quarterback Jameis Winston getting drenched by the bad aura hanging over the Saints. The Saints even played a game against the Miami Dolphins with like seven players or something because of COVID.
Sean Payton jetted off to Fox Sports, yet the karma for the Saints didn't change for new head coach Dennis Allen. Winston got hurt pulling off the greatest comeback in Saints history in Week 1 against Atlanta, star corner Marshon Lattimore missed 10 weeks with a lacerated kidney, and Michael Thomas' entered year 3 of such personal misfortune it felt like it was written by Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy.
I'll let the tape eaters and film experts explain what the Saints need football X and O wise to succeed in 2023. I'm more interested in the 2023 Saints need on a philosophical level.
The Saints haven't had their expected starting quarterback start more than 12 games since Drew Brees in 2018. That's the football equivalent of Jonah swallowed by the whale in the Bible misfortune.
What the 2023 Saints need is better luck, from better health, to having double-doink field goals that bounce in and not out.
Here's the thing we don't like to admit that's true about football more than any other sport: about 60% of success is just dumb luck because of the violence and terrible officiating built into football's essence.
The Saints won a Super Bowl in 2009 in part because Tracy Porter's knee injury wasn't as bad as first thought, Vikings coach Brad Childress couldn't count to 11, and Chris Reis somehow recovered an onside kick in a pile of mass chaos. They then proceeded to miss out on about three more Super Bowls because of terrible officiating, a Vernon Davis catch, a Jared Cook fumble, and like three other bad breaks that can best be summed up with a shrug emoji.
Some people believe in manifesting good luck with dream boards, candles, dances, or an old-framed Times-Picayune newspaper with Buddy Diliberto and Jim Haslett. That last one is me, and I make no apologies. I don't know how to turn the luck around. I just know it'll happen eventually, so why not right now?
I could try to explain how the Saints' luck is gonna change, but I'll just let Jimmy Buffett take it from here...
Better days are in the cards I feel
I feel it in the changing winds
I feel it when I fly
So talk to me
Listen to this story
I've been around enough to know
That there's more than meets the eye
Everybody needs a little good luck charm
A little Gris-gris keeps you safe from harm
Rub yours on me and I'll rub mine on you
Luckiest couple on the avenue
With a little love and luck you will get by
With a little love and luck we'll take the sky
In this megalo-modern world you've got to try
Try a little love and luck and you'll get by
Maybe it's me with some crazy reasoning that the spirit of Jimmy Buffett is going to transition the Saints luck from erroneous to extravagant, but for the first time in a while, the Saints had a training camp that didn't feel like a calamity and as the kids like to say, “The vibes are good.”
Jimmy Buffett always liked to say he was a “Saints fan since day 1.” So I choose to believe whatever beach in the great beyond Jimmy Buffett is currently on, he's sending the Saints some love and luck in 2023.
Saints Fans Mood and Meditation Music: Take it Back – Jimmy Buffett
We will just continue this little column with one more obscure Jimmy Buffett song. He wrote this song for the 1987 America's Cup yacht race. He's singing about taking back the America's Cup from Australia, but I'll just pretend he's talking about the Saints getting back to their rightful place on the NFC South throne. Being the king of the NFC South, let's get back to that. Besides, Tampa is south of New Orleans, right? So technically, that's down under.
We ain't stealin' we're just takin' back
Very simple statement of fact
Call it pillage or call it plunder
We're takin' it back from them boys down under
The Games
New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Tennessee: Are you ready for a Jim Mora 1990s defensive trench warfare first team to 20 wins kind of Sunday? You'd better be. Dennis Allen and Mike Vrabel are elite defensive coaches and have had all summer to prepare for offenses that will run the same plays they've always run.
The Saints won't have Alvin Kamara, which is going to be a problem against the run defense, which has been the best in the NFL the last 5 years. The good news for the Saints is the Titans' pass defense was dreadful in 2022. They allowed the most yards (274) and tied for second-most TD passes allowed (29). If the Saints can keep Derek Carr from getting crushed, he's going to fry that secondary like bacon.
On defense, the Saints will likely focus every resource on stuffing Derrick Henry and hope their corners hold up in man-to-man coverage. It's a decent bet with how the Saints finished the second half of 2022 playing defense.
This being the Saints, you know the rookie kicker will be involved. Blake Grupe at the gun from 50.
Saints 20-17
Atlanta (-3.5) vs Carolina: The unfortunate thing with the Falcons is if Desmond Ridder is just not awful they are going to be VERY good on offense. I know I shouldn't put any stock in the preseason but the Panthers looked so bad I can't help myself.
Falcons 27-13
Detroit (+6.5) at Kansas City: The Lion hype is real. Hop on early.
Lions 31-27
Las Vegas (+3.5) at Denver: Maybe Sean Payton took all the Saints bad voodoo with him to Denver? They've had a dreadful summer with injuries and Russell Wilson looking cooked. I'll always love what Sean Payton did for New Orleans Saints football, but I want that 2024 Denver 2nd-round pick the Saints own to be top 40. I'll be hate watching the Broncos all season.
Raiders 35-27
Washington (-7) vs. Arizona: The Cardinals aren't even pretending to care about 2023. If they could, they'd probably just simulate the entire season so they can get to 2024 faster.
Commanders 28-7
Ralph Malbrough is a contributing writer and Saints fan living in Houston. Email him at saintshappyhour@gmail.com, find him on Facebook, or follow him on Twitter at @SaintsForecast or download the Saints Happy Hour Podcast.
