NEW ORLEANS -- Over the years I've come to love my New Orleans Saints season preview column. It's usually nothing but 2,500 words of wrong, but so what? Trying to predict the unpredictable is 65 percent of the fun of being a sports fan.
Will the Saints defense be any good? Will Saints fans ever experience Jairus Byrd in a positive way? What if Byrd is completely healthy and Sean Payton just has him working out in secret because Sean Payton hates the local media and wants to unleash Byrd week one against Arizona and then gloat afterwards?
Stop laughing. The way Payton hates the local media, I'd say there is a 5 percent chance this happens.
I love trying to predict how the Saints season will go, but man, this year is tough. I've rewritten this preview four times.
The Saints defense gets taken to Suplex City by the Baltimore Ravens and version one of this preview was nothing but doom, gloom and a 2016 NFL Draft preview. That 16-play opening drive by Joe Flacco against the Saints defense was like getting a wedgie the first day of school and worrying every day afterwards is going to be exactly the same.
Drew Brees announces he was kinda, sorta, really hurt last year, then looked spectacular against New England, and suddenly it's sunshine, rainbows, and I'm looking on AirBnB for rooms in San Francisco for February 2016 in preview version two! Brandin Cooks is going to have 9,000 yards receiving!
Then the Saints got lit up by Brian Hoyer. BRIAN. HOYER. Oh no, here comes the rain again!
I tell myself rule No. 1 of the preseason – remember that 90 percent of preseason football means nothing. It was just the preseason, but in 2012 Blaine Gabbert looked good against the Saints, and the 2012 Saints defense ended up as the worst defense in NFL history. Preview version three was tears, anger and deep longing for a creditable pass rush. Junior Galette and his one good Achilles tendon might be the Saints best pass rusher if he was still on the team.
Which brings us to version four.
If you prefer level-headed, rational analysis, our own Lyons Yellin does it better than anyone. I'm not really capable of that. I've realized the fact I fly back and forth from Houston to New Orleans for some Saints games has made me 26 percent more insane as a fan. Remember those games last year against Cincinnati and Carolina in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome? I took those very personally.
Flight, game ticket, and overpriced 'Dome concessions add up my friends, and when the Saints got kicked in the head 41-10, I went a little nuts. My post game column had all the subtlety of a six-year-old throwing a tantrum in the grocery store check-out line. I cringe reading it now. Where was the fun? Even horrible football should be funny. There isn't even one good Rob Ryan looked like a sad hippie joke in there. It reads like a mediocre regular football column. I apologize. The entire point of this little corner of WWLTV.com is fun. It's hard admitting my column was as mediocre as the 2014 Saints, but the truth hurts. As Bill Parcell's always said, "You are either getting better or getting worse. Nobody stays the same."
Every year I give myself a goal for the season. Some years it's using more statistics, or don't reference Saints history that's more than 20 years old, but this year my goal is no matter what happens on the field, to always ask,"What makes this Saints game funny, and why is it ridiculous?"
To start off on the right foot I've set my 2015 Saints preview to music. Why? Because what's funnier and more ridiculous than giving all the important 2015 Saints players and coaches their own songs for the upcoming season? My taste in music, much like the Saints, is all over the place.
Saint Motel - My Type - For the 2015 Saints Schedule
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyVPyKrx0Xo
The song is about a woman and not a football schedule, but this, my friends, is just the type of schedule you want. The one and only thing that makes me think my dread, panic and doom emotions about the 2015 Saints are wrong is their schedule. My God, have you seen it? On paper it's as delicious as a Domilise's po-boy.
Let's run down how gorgeous this schedule looks....
· Six games against the NFC South, including two versus a rookie quarterback in Tampa.
· Four games against the AFC South and their three horrible quarterbacks. What are the odds a Brian Hoyer-quarterbacked team beats the Saints back-to-back years? About a billion to one.
· The Saints play only one potential bad weather game (Washington on Nov. 15), and even that will probably be fine.
· The best quarterbacks the Saints face are Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford. The rest are hardly imposing. The 2009 Saints might have run the table against this cushion soft slate.
Only downside to this schedule is it's too bad Junior Galette is hurt, because it means when the Saints go to Washington they can't enjoy running straight at him as much as opposing teams did in 2014 when he was in New Orleans.
I've spent all August pushing the negative thoughts out of my head by pulling out my pocket schedule and reading it aloud.
Taylor Swift – Shake It Off – For Rob Ryan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a
Poor Rob Ryan has Dennis Allen looking over his shoulder, and his job security might be the hottest Saints topic by October if the defense looks like it has in the preseason. When Baltimore converted the 4th and 20, Rob looked like a 10-year-old who just got told Santa Claus wasn't real.
If Rob Ryan can conjure up a good pass rush from this Saints defense, I'm going to start a drive to rename Lee Circle the 'Rob Ryan Roundabout' with corresponding statue. A monument we can all love. If my Twitter feed is full of random Rob Ryan pictures out celebrating on Sunday nights, we'll know things are looking good. Let's all hope the biggest Rob Ryan news in October is an unfortunate Instagram picture on social media where Rob gets a little too crazy celebrating the 6-1 Saints' latest victory. Rob Ryan is so much fun, I want him in my football life in 2016. Please make the Saints defense not terrible Rob, I'm pulling for you.
Shake off 2014, big guy.
Coin – Run – For C.J. Spiller and Brandin Cooks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpvUoCL001Q
The Saints need at least one of those two guys to be great.
When I heard C.J. Spiller had knee surgery, it sent me to a very dark place. First of all, no knee surgery is 'minor' for a player whose entire value is based on speed and explosiveness. I've been on record from the day the Saints signed him; Spiller is the most important offensive player not named Drew Brees. The Saints need him to be great. Not good, not OK, GREAT. We haven't seen him play a down yet, and with the way the Saints lie about injuries, there is an 11 percent chance he's dead. Please don't be dead C.J.! The Saints really, really need you to be good.
The Saints continuing trend of signing injured Buffalo Bills is the saddest hobby since your Uncle Bob started collecting potatoes that look like U.S. presidents.
While Spiller has been missing in action this preseason, Cooks is looking like the most explosive wide receiver Drew Brees has ever had in New Orleans. He put on a clinic against New England a few weeks ago, and Sean Payton probably has dozens of different ways dreamed up to get him the ball.
If either isn't very good and the Saints offense slips to league average, we then go to a place we've never been with a Sean Payton coached team. It will be an awful place filled with tears, three touchdown loses and lots of empty bottles. On the flip side, if BOTH are very good, then the Saints offense has 2011 potential.
I like to listen to this song and imagine Spiller and Cooks just destroying teams.
Yes, I'm aware this song could be sent back to 1986 and be a No. 1 hit? What of it?
Elton John – I'm Still Standing – For Drew Brees
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHwVBirqD2s
So why did I go old school '80's rock for Drew Brees? All the articles about his decline are mostly noise and clickbait, but we are definitely at a crossroads with him and the Saints.
The good news is, considering how competitive Brees is, he probably has a thumb drive of the 9,000 articles about his decline and predictions saying the Saints are going to be terrible in 2015, and reads them every night before bed as motivation. Brees and Payton want to prove they don't need Jimmy Graham or even receivers most of us have heard of to keep rolling. Brees' career is littered with bodies of those who doubted him, and if he and Payton are great again in 2015, it goes right up there with 2009 on the list of why we love him.
What happens if Saints crash and burn? Will he still want to be here, or will the Saints want to do a full rebuild? Brees has one year left on his contract after 2015 and a gigantic salary cap hit for a team facing yet another salary cap mess. Brees' future is complicated no matter what happens this year.
Did I mention Brees says he's now completely healthy after hurting his oblique muscle last summer?
2015 is basically a contract year for Drew Brees, and the last time he was in a contract year, he laid waste to the NFL in 2011. Never forget behind the family-guy, 'ah shucks' television image is a guy who carries a huge chip and is driven to rip opponents' hearts out.
In December I expect Brees to be taking veiled shots about his decline in post-game press conferences and singing, "Don't you know I'm still standing better than I ever did. Looking like true survivor, feeling like a little kid."
I love this song but love the video even more. It has helicopters, mimes, women in leotards and Elton John dancing in a full suit on the beach, because the 1980s were wild, kids.
Bottom Line: Drew Brees is going to crush it this year. Watch.
The Moth and The Flame – Young and Unafraid – For the Saints Defensive Rookies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0eFx5a-FMg
The Saints need the rookies to play well on defense, and there aren't any alternatives, because years of bad drafts and contracts have put them here. Stephone Anthony has looked like everything the Saints hoped for, but they need Delvin Breaux, Hau'oli Kikaha, Tyeler Davison, Davis Tull, and Kaleb Eulls to either be good from the start or get good quickly.
The Saints pass rush without Junior Galette has looked like the worst I've ever seen it under Sean Payton. The loss of Galette might be the hole that finally sinks this leaky boat. The Saints need at least two of the rookies from the list above to contribute heavily to the success of the defense. Would you wager big on that happening? If so, I have some Jazzland season passes I'd love to sell you at a huge discount.
When all those undrafted free agents made the Saints roster last year, it wasn't a sign the Saints found a bunch of diamonds in the trash; it was a sign they had drafted so poorly the trash was the only place left to look for warm bodies. Let's hope the kids make up for mistakes with big plays, but expect wild inconsistency week to week, because that's life when young kids are playing major roles on defense.
Florence and the Machine – Ship to Wreck – For Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9v8jLBrvug
Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis gave Jairus Byrd and Junior Galette huge deals that haven't worked out, they traded Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, and have left their defensive line incredibly thin, making the 2015 Saints roster incredibly fragile and fraught with holes. There are so many questions for 2015 I've almost lost track.
In the song Florence sings, "Under starry skies we are lost, into the breach we got tossed, and the waters coming in fast. Did I build this ship to wreck?" That sums up the 2015 Saints for me perfectly. I'm not as confident in Loomis and Payton like I have been since 2006 because they don't seem to make the right moves like they used to. All that's left from the 2014 draft is Brandin Cooks. The Saints would have done just as well if they'd have bought me Mike Detillier's Draft Report and let me make the picks. I guarantee I'd have found them at least two decent players.
Payton has always been a risk taker and it's what we love about him, but just know the way the 2015 Saints are constructed, the potential for going 100 miles an hour, hitting a wall and then bursting into flames is high.
Prediction Time
I know, you want me to give a record prediction. Las Vegas has the Saints 2015 win total set at 9. My wife went to Vegas for work in August, I had her bet heavily on the under, but that was before I saw healthy Drew Brees look spectacular.
I've said all off season and summer a winning Saints season needs this formula....
Elite Drew Brees + very good offensive line + easy schedule + one elite offensive weapon=9-7.
I think they have every piece of that formula. 9-7 might win them a terrible NFC South or it might leave them out the playoffs entirely. We will know in 17 weeks.
The Games
Arizona (-2.5) vs. New Orleans: Do you trust this Saints defense on the road, against a playoff team from 2014? I don't. I expect the Saints defense to be 2012-level bad early in the season. If the Saints are going to win games in September and October, they will do so almost exclusively because Drew Brees is Superman.
Arizona's offensive line allowed the eighth most quarterback hits in 2014, which would be exciting if the Saints had an NFL quality pass rush. Carson Palmer was playing great in 2014 before he got injured, but he's still Carson Palmer, so the Saints best hope on defense is he throws them a couple interceptions.
Arizona loves to throw the ball deep, so let's hope the Saints injured secondary can hold up. The Cardinals ranked 31st in rushing offense last year, so if they jam the ball down the Saints throat, there really is no hope for this defense.
On defense Arizona was 24th in yards allowed in 2014 but fifth in points per game, so the Saints should be able to move the ball, and we will likely get our first extensive view of the Saints red zone offense post Jimmy Graham.
I expect to see a lot of sad, confused Rob Ryan as the Saints defense drives us all insane with an inability to get off the field on 3rd down.
Cardinals 27-20
Carolina (-3.5) at Jacksonville: Which unit will rank lower in 2014, the Saints defense or the Panther offense? If the Jaguars had an NFL quality quarterback, I'd pick them in an upset, but Blake Bortles is not NFL quality.
Panthers 23-10
Tampa Bay (-3) vs. Tennessee: I have no idea if Jameis Winston will be any good. My gut says he's the second coming of Jay Cutler and is a horrible interception machine just good enough that Tampa will never get rid of him. He does have some really good receivers though.
Bucs 24-20
New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh: I expect Tom Brady to throw for 450 yards against a defense that will rival the Saints for worst in the league.
Patriots 35-24
Atlanta (+3) vs. Philadelphia: The Falcons have the best piped-in crowd noise in the NFL, and on Monday night they will probably crank the volume up to 11. Also, Sam Bradford is terrible.
Falcons 31-27
Ralph Malbrough is a Saints fan living in Houston. Email him at ralphmalbrough@hotmail.com, find him on Facebook, or follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SaintsForecast or download his podcast at Itunes.
