This week the Carolina Panthers (6-7) will be featured on Monday Night Football, hosting the offensive juggernaut New Orleans Saints (11-2).
Not only are the Saints in the top tier of offensive rankings this season, their ascendant defense is now top-ten as well. Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost five in a row after starting off with a 6-2 record and the only thing they have going for them is home-field advantage.
Despite playing on the road, New Orleans is currently favored to win by 6.5 points. Here’s a few reasons why Carolina is considered such a big underdog in this matchup.
1. The Panthers don’t have the firepower
The Saints have struggled over the past couple weeks to find the dominant offense they have displayed all year, but they are still the league’s No. 2 scoring offense, averaging an astonishing 34.4 points per game.
Aside from Drew Brees, the two players Carolina needs to stop most are running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Michael Thomas. Kamara already has 793 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns along with 70 receptions, 591 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns this year.
Christian McCaffrey is having a better season than Kamara though, racking up 926 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. He also has a mind-blowing 86 receptions, 701 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns to go along with nearly 1,000 rushing yards after 13 games.
The Panthers don’t have a receiving weapon to match Thomas, though. Thomas has an incredible 102 receptions, 1,218 receiving yards, and eight receiving touchdowns already after just 13 games played.
With Devin Funchess fading fast, the Panthers have to hope either D.J. Moore or Curtis Samuel could be that guy some day. For now, they simply can’t match their rival’s passing firepower.
2. The defenses are going in opposite directions
Carolina’s defense (and the team as a whole) hasn’t looked the same since they allowed 52 points in a prime-time loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Panthers have developed a bad habit of allowing explosive plays at the worst times. They have also allowed opponents to score 20 or more points in 11 of their 13 games. Coach Ron Rivera has taken over play-calling duties but the team continues to lose winnable games because of baffling defensive mistakes.
Some years these Saints are carried by the combined offensive brilliance of Drew Brees and Sean Payton, but this 2018 New Orleans team has talent defensively, as well.
Their best defender, edge Cameron Jordan has 12 sacks this season already. Meanwhile, cornerback Marshon Lattimore is the focal point of their secondary. Lattimore was the named Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2017 and already has 29 pass deflections, seven interceptions, and five forced fumbles in less than two seasons.
After a shaky start to the season, the New Orleans defense has improved dramatically as the year has progressed. The Saints head into Week 15 ranked No. 10 in points allowed per game at 21.8.
The Panthers are tied with the Browns at No. 24, allowing 25.5.
3. Drew Brees is having a career year
The Saints have a future hall-of-famer in Drew Brees and he’s playing better than ever. Now in his 18th season, Brees just became the NFL’s all-time leading passer with 73,908 yards and counting.
Even at 39 years old, Brees has never looked so efficient. In 13 games this year, Brees has thrown for 3,463 yards, 31 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He has a career-high completion percentage of 75.7 and a career-high (and league-best) quarterback rating of 120.8.
4. Their overall efficiency can’t compare
This division rivalry has been lopsided over the past five meetings, with the Saints coming away with four wins. The reason is that they’re significantly more efficient in almost every aspect of the game.
Simple statistics like passing yards, tackles and even points are useful, but they don’t tell the whole story. Football Outsiders uses DVOA efficiency ratings to take a deeper look into everything that can affect a game to offer a more nuanced understanding of a team’s performance.
In this area, it’s no contest.
Right now, New Orleans is ranked No. 4 in overall team efficiency, while Carolina is at No. 15.
Any way you slice it, the Saints have an obvious advantage heading into Monday night, so the Panthers will have to bring everything they have in order to end their losing streak.