Though there are 105 members of the Louisiana House of Representatives and 39 members of the Senate, only a fraction of those will set policy.
And after following Gov. Bobby Jindal in lock step for his first term and much of the second, virtually all of them will try to distance themselves from the governor this year as his popularity ebbs and his ability to twist arms vanishes.
After all, the governor isn't coming back next year, but most of the lawmakers want to, either in their current job or in a different chamber.
Following is an analysis of the playing field as the April 23 Legislative Session approaches. Much of it was provided through interviews with lawmakers and political observers.
In the Senate
Senate President John Alario, R-Westwego: Nobody has more institutional knowledge than Alario, who was also Speaker of the House twice during his long career in the lower chamber. He's a chameleon, able to secure top leadership positions under such diametrically opposed governors as Edwin Edwards and Bobby Jindal.
From a colleague: "Nobody does a better job of running the chambers than Alario." It could be his last hurrah as president, but nobody would bet against him when the new governor is elected next fall.
Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Committee Chairman Neil Riser, R-Columbia: Riser suffered a bad loss in the 2013 5th Congressional District race, but he is more powerful than ever in the Senate.
Nobody in the Senate gets more done than Riser, who is able to build behind-the-scenes coalitions and has strong alliances with both Republican and Democrat members. Though conservative philosophically, he is also a pragmatist. Riser would be among the finalists on "Survivor."
He could be a candidate for Senate president in 2016 if Alario doesn't repeat and remains politically ambitious; will likely run for a statewide office or Congress again in the future.
Finance Committee Chairman Jack Donahue, R-Mandeville: Donahue isn't considered Mr. Personality, but he knows and understands the budget numbers better than anybody else in the Senate. He and Riser will work closely together.
J.P. Morrell, D-New Orleans: Morrell plans to file a series of bills to address weaknesses in college campus sexual assault policies.
Karen Carter Peterson, D-New Orleans: Peterson is chair of the Louisiana Democratic Party. She isn't considered a coalition builder. Peterson will be less about passing legislation than she will be about lobbing verbal grenades at Gov. Bobby Jindal, but she will get a lot of floor time.
Ben Nevers, D-Bogalusa: Word around the Capitol is Nevers is trying to build support for a processing tax that could generate more than $1 billion in new revenue. A processing tax would tax oil and gas coming into the state for processing.
Previous attempts at a processing tax — first by former Sen. Foster Campbell, D-Bossier City, now a public service commissioner, and then by former Sens. Rob Marionneaux, D-Livonia, and Joe McPherson, D-Woodworth — have failed.
Sharon Broome, D-Baton Rouge: Broome is running for mayor of Baton Rouge, so it's unlikely she will interject herself into controversy unless it's to protect the city. State Rep. Regina Barrow, D-Baton Rouge, will position herself to run for Broome's Senate seat.
Mike Walsworth, R-West Monroe: Nobody in the Senate has been more loyal to Gov. Bobby Jindal than Walworth, who stood on the podium with Jindal when he lost in 2003 and again when Jindal won the first of his two terms in 2007.
It's paid off politically during the past eight years with committee chairmanships and favors like $50 million in state funding that saved a chicken plant and more than 1,000 jobs in Union Parish.
But with Jindal's popularity plummeting, this may be Walsworth's last hurrah in leadership, although he will almost certainly win re-election. After that, Walworth still has ambitions to lead his hometown West Monroe as mayor.
Robert Adley, R-Benton: This will be the final session for the colorful and sometimes controversial Adley, who is term limited.
Members expect Adley to focus on transportation issues. One of his colleagues said: "That's his sole mission in life now."
Francis Thompson, D-Delhi: Only Alario can match Thompson's institutional knowledge and ability to fund projects in his district.
Thompson is one of the few lawmakers for whom it doesn't matter who the governor is or whether the governor is a Republican or Democrat.
A colleague said: "If you really need something done, go to Francis."
Dan Claitor, R-Baton Rouge: Claitor lost last fall's 6th Congressional District race. He's politically ambitious, but members said he's been quiet so far as the session approaches.
Greg Tarver, D-Shreveport: Tarver rarely files his own bills, but he's always a factor in any legislation that interests him or his district. Within the chamber he's a force, and he knows has to score when it comes to projects in his district or for Southern University.
David Heitmeier, D-New Orleans: Heitmeier understands the federal and state components of health care better than any other member, and he'll need that knowledge as chairman of the Health and Welfare Committee to keep a safety net intact for Louisiana's most at-risk.
Rick Ward, R-Port Allen: Considered an up-and-coming member, he will likely end up chairing a plum committee in 2016. Described as "astute and calm" by one member.
Norby Chabert, R-Houma: Chabert is the Legislature's biggest champion for coastal preservation and restoration.
In the House
Appropriations Committee Chairman Jim Fannin, R-Jonesboro: All eyes will be on Fannin as he wrestles to mitigate crushing budget cuts that appear unavoidable.
Fannin's position is the third most powerful in the Legislature behind the Senate president and House speaker, but the normally plum assignment could turn sour if constituents blame him for crippling cuts.
He'll try to protect, as best he can, signature institutions within northeastern Louisiana because those are the people whose votes Fannin will need to win the Senate District 35 seat in the fall. He's termed out in the House.
Speaker Chuck Kleckley, R-Lake Charles: By most accounts, Kleckley stumbled early as speaker, much of which can be attributed to a large turnover of members when he got the gavel. But he recovered nicely, emerging as a strong leader.
He's term limited, so some members question how active he will be in managing the messy budget. As to his political future, there has been speculation that he may run for state treasurer or perhaps mayor of Lake Charles, but so far he isn't tipping his hand.
Ways and Means Committee Chairman Joel Robideaux, R-Lafayette: Robideaux is term limited and running for Lafayette Parish president, so he'll make an even more concerted effort to please his home district voters.
But Robideaux, who overseas the construction budget, has said the Legislature shouldn't add any new capital outlay projects with the budget in tatters.
Brett Geymann, R-Lake Charles: Geymann is one of the founders of the "Fiscal Hawks," a conservative coalition of members who have sought major budget reforms that include eliminating the use of one-time money to fill budget holes and balked at the Common Core education standards.
The hawks' success has been hit and miss since forming in 2012. So far they've been unable to permeate any major leadership positions in the House, but they have won some budget reforms.
They've been strangely silent on this year's budget, but Geymann will likely come hard with another attempt to repeal Common Core.
Lance Harris, R-Alexandria: Harris is chairman of the Republican delegation but has been able to lead without alienating Democrats.
Katrina Jackson, D-Monroe: Jackson leads the Legislative Black Caucus, which isn't strong enough in numbers to set policy but is big enough to win concessions and plums as it's courted for support.
Her legislation last year that effectively forced the closure of most state abortion clinics elevated Jackson's profile, and she has demonstrated a knack for grabbing the spotlight. She'll be a strong candidate for speaker pro-tem in 2016.
Jackson will run for re-election in the fall, but eventually has her eyes set on the Senate seat currently held by Francis Thompson, D-Delhi, after he is term limited. She was listed among The Time-Picayune's 25 People to Watch in Louisiana Politics in 2015.
John Bel Edwards, D-Amite: Edwards is the only announced Democratic candidate in the governor's race and will spend most of the session running the race from his House seat, trying to generate earned media to raise his statewide profile.
He's considered smart and effective by his colleagues, but few believe the Democrats can win a statewide election in this era. He'll be noisy.
Cameron Henry, R-Metairie: Henry's political future in the House largely depends on the governor's race. He has closely aligned himself with U.S. Sen. David Vitter, R-La., the front-runner. If Vitter wins, Henry is a shoe-in for a top leadership position in 2016.
Education Committee Chairman Steve Carter, R-Baton Rouge: Carter is a staunch supporter of Common Core and will have to fend off a flurry of challenges to keep it intact. We'll see if he's up to the task. He would like to be speaker in 2016.
Stuart Bishop, R-Lafayette: Considered an up-and-coming member, some of his colleagues believe he could rise to House speaker in the 2016 session.
The next governor will certainly be looking to someone from Acadiana to fill one of the top three positions in the House (speaker, chairmen of Appropriations and Ways and Means).
Other strong possibilities for 2016 House leadership positions include Chris Broadwater, R-Hammond, and Walt Leger, D-New Orleans. Any governor must have New Orleans represented in leadership. Ted James, D-Baton Rouge, is also considered a member on the rise.
Follow Greg Hilburn on Twitter @GregHilburn1
