WASHINGTON — With seven months until House Republicans possibly elect their next top leader, some experts and allies of Rep. Steve Scalise say he still could be a contender.
“I’ll be behind him 110 percent,’’ said Rep. Ralph Abraham, R-La. “If he asks me, I’ll be leading the charge."
Any potential plan for the Louisiana Republican to launch a bid suffered a blow last Friday when Speaker of the House Paul Ryan backed his second in command, California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, to succeed him.
A possible Scalise run also took a hit when Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus, said he is considering a bid for the post.
Scalise, 52, the majority whip and third-ranking lawmaker in the chamber, said he wouldn’t run against McCarthy.
But observers said that doesn’t rule out a bid if McCarthy drops out as he he did in 2015 or if Scalise picks up enough support, particularly from conservatives, to pull off a win. He also hasn't said he won't run for majority leader, the No. 2 spot in the House.
“The real question is — is Scalise conservative enough to satisfy those who are in the Freedom Caucus while at the same time moderate enough to satisfy those who supported Ryan and who have supported McCarthy," said Pearson Cross, a political scientist at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette. “He is a natural for the House Freedom Caucus, but he’s also been part of a leadership team that hasn’t been as conservative as some members of the Republican caucus.''
Rep. Clay Higgins, R-La., said he would back Scalise if he was in the race for speaker.
“He is a powerful voice for Louisiana,'' Higgins said. " And having Steve as speaker of the House would obviously be good for our state.”
The leadership race probably will not be decided until after the November elections, during a closed-door secret-ballot contest, and the winner won’t take the gavel until January 2019 when the new Congress is sworn in. That’s if Republicans retain control of the House.
The jockeying for the post may have slowed since Ryan, who is retiring at the end of the year, and Scalise endorsed McCarthy.
"Whip Scalise’s focus remains on moving our conservative agenda forward and maintaining our Republican majority," Chris Bond, a spokesman for Scalise, said in a statement Friday.
Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., said Scalise has represented Louisiana well as majority whip and would do the same as speaker or majority leader.
"If he says he will not run against McCarthy for the speakership, then we should take him at his word,'' Johnson said. "We are in the very early stages of this process, and whatever the outcome, Louisiana is proud of our native son.”
Experts said Republican leaders want to appear united as the party faces challenging midterm elections. If for whatever reason McCarthy, who is the frontrunner, doesn’t run, Scalise probably would become speaker, Cross said.
“He is the person that will get them back on track the quickest with the least amount of uproar," Cross said. “He is a good vote counter, and he’s definitely gung-ho for the team."
As the majority whip, Scalise is responsible for mobilizing Republican House members to vote with leadership on major issues. The post is seen as a springboard to a higher leadership position.
Scalise, who represents Louisiana's 1st District in southeast Louisiana, has been in the national spotlight more in recent months as the nation follows his recovery from a gunshot last summer that nearly killed him. He was shot during a congressional baseball practice and then was hospitalized for months. He returned to work last fall to a standing ovation from his Republican and Democratic colleagues.
Scalise, who underwent more procedures Monday, is expected to remain in the hospital a few days, according to the MedStar Washington Hospital Center. Scalise was in "excellent spirits,'' the hospital said.
“In some ways, he’s kind of a star, ’’ Cross said. “He became a household name when he was assaulted, so he’s already got great name recognition. … He got plaudits for how he’s pulled through and has been a soldier in his recovery and has been gracious. I think those kinds of warm feelings can’t be discounted in terms of moving up to the speaker position."
Aiming for higher posts isn’t new for Scalise. He launched a bid in 2015 for House majority leader to replace McCarthy, who was expected to run for speaker after then-speaker John Boehner of Ohio announced his retirement. McCarthy, however, dropped out of the speaker race and kept his spot as majority leader.
In that race, Ryan endorsed Georgia Rep. Tom Price, who was running against Scalise for majority leader.
Scalise, who is serving his sixth term, has risen quickly through the GOP ranks in the House. The conservative Republican and former state legislator was elected as majority whip in 2014 amid a GOP scramble for leadership positions.
Before becoming majority whip, Scalise headed the powerful Republican Study Committee, which works to advance a conservative social and economic agenda in the House.
In 2012, he headed the National Republican Congressional Committee's effort to recruit GOP House candidates from across the country.
Scalise, a Trump supporter, has aggressively pushed the GOP agenda, including dismantling the Affordable Care Act. He was a frequent critic of former President Barack Obama’s policies.
"If he makes it to speaker this would be a meteoric rise," Cross said.
Beyond his national profile, Scalise is a fierce advocate for regional issues in the Gulf Coast, including energy and oil and gas. He has led the effort to make sure billions in fines paid by BP for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill was sent to Gulf Coast states for restoration efforts.
Democrats, meanwhile, are watching the jockeying.
Rep. Judy Chu, D-Calif., said Scalise and McCarthy appear to have an “equally good chance" of claiming the speakership.
“It is a question of who mobilizes the best,’’ she said. “I know Scalise is a very friendly person. But on the other hand, McCarthy is very operational."
But Chu is predicting a Democratic takeover and pledging her support for California Rep. Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
“No questions asked,’’ she said.
Abraham said that as whip Scalise has had to also lobby Democrats to pass some major bills. "He’s one the few up here who in my opinion can actually work across the aisle and get some positive things accomplished,'' he said.
Abraham said he also has watched Scalise work with Freedom Caucus members.
“He listens. That’s the first step to solving a problem,'' he said. "Doesn’t mean he will agree with every group that he talks to, but he gives them enough ear time and enough air time to express their views.’’
Cross said that even as speaker Scalise probably wouldn't steer much federal funding to the state since earmarks — or funding for special projects in lawmakers' districts — are banned.
Scalise, however, could help move to the floor bills related to coastal restoration and other local issues, he said.
Abraham said McCarthy is also a good leader, but as a fellow Louisianian he would prefer Scalise.
"It would be outstanding for the state,’’ he said. “That particular position brings power.”