NEW ORLEANS — In your Breakdown: Beryl is blowing up the long-range forecast.
Originally back in April, its forecast called for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
Now, CSU predicts 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and six major hurricanes.
It moves their forecast from the middle range of NOAA’s May forecast to the higher end.
NOAA predicted 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricane, and 4-7 major hurricanes and has not changed its forecast.
CSU Meteorologists wrote out a few reasons for their increase, blaming La Nina conditions, which increase hurricane activity by decreasing wind shear, sea surface temperatures about 1 degree Celsius warmer than usual, and early storm activity—like Beryl—which typically is associated with a hyperactive season.
In a previous Breakdown, we looked closely at the accuracy of these forecasts. We found that in 2020 and 2021, the Atlantic was more active than meteorologists expected. In 2022 and 2023, it was less active than meteorologists expected.
But we know that forecasts like this are hard to pinpoint and can change as quickly as the winds. Our WWL Louisiana meteorologist will be keeping an eye on things day by day.
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