NEW ORLEANS — When we started looking at the coronavirus numbers in our newsroom, we noticed that while more people are getting infected across Louisiana, fewer people are dying.
Take the 10 days between March 31 and April 9. During that time 463 people lost their lives.
But in the past 10 days, COVID-19 has taken the lives of 111 people.
So has anything changed?
To help us figure out the numbers, we turned to two doctors at Tulane. Pulmonary and critical care physician Dr. Joshua Denson is on the hospital front lines. In fact, he diagnosed the very first critically ill patient back in March. And Dr. David Mushatt is a public health expert and head of adult infectious diseases. They both believe this snapshot in time of lower deaths will not last.
"I think if you ask any physician, they would agree the death count will come around," Dr. Denson said.
"There is a lag between when patients are exposed and get infected, when they get sick and then of those who die, sometimes it can be two to four weeks, and sometimes a few months," Dr. Mushatt said.
They also agree there are some changes helping the numbers. Let's take who is getting infected. It appears nursing homes and people with underlying health problems are taking better precautions, while healthier young people are the ones making the new positive-case numbers rise.
"And we've known for quite some time that younger people are much less likely to die if they get this infection," Dr. Mushatt said.
"In the beginning, this disease hit the very parts of our city first which are also the most unhealthy parts of our city, and so they’re going to die more frequently," Dr. Denson explained .
And the doctors say, not only are more people without symptoms getting tested, but doctors are also better now at caring for the symptoms, such as the blood clotting and oxygen needs.
Neither doctor thinks medicines and treatments like hydroxychloroquine, remdesivir or convalescent plasma are adding to survival, but the use of the steroid dexamethasone may be helping somewhat, but it's not the answer. And because they believe deaths are not going to go down significantly, they have these reminders.
"If you end up in the hospital from this disease, you are so alone and you're so isolated," said Dr. Denson, who has friends who have lost parents and grandparents.
"I think there is pretty good evidence so that it's much more, it's more contagious. I've heard as much as 10 times more," Dr. Mushatt said.
And even if the death rate goes down to just one half of one percent, many people will still not survive this virus.
"That's about 12,000 or 13,000 deaths in Louisiana. That's a lot of, a lot of excess deaths," Dr. Mushatt said.
And Dr. Mushatt adds, he hopes people will take control over the coronavirus, by wearing masks, and avoiding large gatherings. It's a sacrifice now for a future vaccine which could be months away.
And while doctors think the virus has become more contagious, they are not sure yet if it has changed to become more deadly.
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